Stocks may have been rallying, but the bear market isn't over for two reasons – MarketWatch


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Investors’ pivot from bearish to bullish was too sudden

If the current bear market follows the typical pattern, it won’t be over until investor capitulation occurs.

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The bear market is not over, according to a contrarian analysis of stock market timer sentiment.

That’s for two contrarian-related reasons. First, since the mid-June low, stock market timers have been eager to turn bullish, and that is more typical of bear market rallies than the beginnings of a new bull market. Second, the stock market’s mid-June bottom was not accompanied by anything close to the capitulation that often accompanies a major bottom.